7 posts tagged “investing”
Hot Commodities
By Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers retired in 1980 at age 37. Rogers made his money investing in commodities. He believes that stocks & commodities alternate in their bull markets, which last 18 years each. He thinks the last bull run in stocks ended in 1998 and that the bull market for commodities will go until 2015. He claims that when commodities go up, stocks go down. Commodities are driven by WORLD supply and demand, so China, India and other emerging growth markets are very important.
- NOTE: This theory differs from Rich Dad, Poor Dad: Who Stole My Money, which says there is a 20-10-5 cycle. RDPD says the commodity bull would be 2000 through 2010. He thinks stocks should pick up in 2008 and continue until 2016 because baby boomers would be forced to remove it from their IRA's and 401K's because they have reached the mandatory withdrawal age of 70 1/2. In either case, 2000-2010 are bull market for commodities according to both authors.
Rogers created his own commodities index called the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI), which he invests in. He believes commodities are just as safe a investment vehicle as stocks. In fact, more commodities are traded all day than all US stocks combined. Rogers analyzes each investment vehicle and concludes that commodities are the choice vehicle right now.
NOTE: Oil & Gas make up the two highest portions of the commodities trading. So, I'm already heavily invested in commodities. Rogers says the US had approved 25 LNG ports in Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, but environmentalists have blocked them.
- Commodities included in this book include: oil, natural gas, metals, and sugar.
- Rogers believes commodities are the best hedge against a declining or sideways stock market. In fact, commodities have been a better hedge against inflation than stocks or bonds for the past 45 years.
- The US can no longer control the world economy. China is representing the largest growth and will soon be the largest purchaser of commodities. NOTE: This is what kills many of Dent's boomer theories. The economy is driven by world supply & demand, not US alone. Therefore, the US baby boomers cannot be overly influential. For example, there are 300 million Chinese who are under 20 years old. That's more than all the people in the US combined.
- Investing in commodity companies (like oil companies) is NOT a substitute for investing in the commodity directly. The cumulative performance of futures is triple the cumulative performance of matching equities, according to a Yale study. The stock market can influence the price of a commodity-based company, but the commodity itself is influenced directly by the world supply & demand.
- Another way to play commodities is to invest in markets that are exporting commodities. Brazil is the largest producer of sugar. Venezuela is oil. Chile is copper.
- Rogers is not bullish on Russia or Africa. There's way to many political instabilities with those nations.
- Rogers invests in commodities through his RICI index fund. I'm not sure how he does this yet. He does not play the futures option market. Futures can be purchased on huge leverage (5% margin accounts). He talks a lot about the futures market and how it is traded. However, this is NOT a trading manual. It's an introduction to commodities and a motivational guide at best.
- Rogers has traveled the world 6 times. He is extremely bullish on China and believes they will become the economic superpower within 15 years. He is so bullish that his granddaughter is learning Chinese. He believes they will be the number one purchaser of commodities within a few years. That means, the US is competing with China for resources. China is a creditor nation, while US is the biggest debtor nation.
- India is no match for China. Not even close. Huge infrastructure issues like roads, and phones, for example. Education isn't nearly as good.
- We are in a secular bull market for oil. The issue is supply & demand. Russia and Venezuela cannot get the oil to market fast enough to make a significant impact.
- "As much of a fan of commodities as I am right now, gold is not my favorite. I own some gold personally, as does my baby girl, and gold also makes up 3 percent of the RICI. But other commodities will do much better in this bull market."
- The commodities investor must try to look at gold as just one more commodity among many whose prices might rise and fall, depending on the forces of supply and demand.
- Rogers also discusses lead, sugar, coffee.
- The commodity bull market will show signs of ending when all cars are small and wind farms are dotting the landscape. In other words, we're reeling from the high price of energy.
Run It Like a Business, by Richard J. Koreto
- Chapter 2: Bits & Bytes
- The SEC & NASD have strict rules for electronically storing and backing up client records.
- PDA programs are available to download from DST or another aggregator using E-Z Data's client data system.
- Asset Management Software.
- Centerpiece is owned by Schwab
- Techfi by Advent
- Chapter 3: Know Thyself
- Worth magazine has an annual list of top financial planners that serve wealthy clients.
- Most people just can't start with high net-worth clients
- Fee-only is more popular with wealthy clients
- NAPFA is a fee-only association
- Create a pie-chart of your income streams
- The key to growth is getting the RM's in place to handle clients. One example was 6,500 clients handled by 18 planners (361 each).
- Broker-dealers are getting nervous because an increasing amount of planners are going fee-only.
- Chapter 4: Sell Yourself
- "With a little effort, you can become known to both local and national publications. Top planners have found these connections pay off. 'The press has bee among our best allies.'"
- Press release. Get quoted.
- Write articles. Local paper. Magazines.
- Public speaking.
- Electronic newsletters
- Chapter 5: Master of the House
- If you're in the affluent marketplace, then 60 to 90 clients is the optimal number.
- Hire the necessary administrative staff to deliver the wow.
- Hire an office manager.
- Delegation is not abdication.
- Give away a slice of your job description.
- Do we know any other top CFP's?
- The planner is the main cog. Hire around them to make sure they are just planning.
- One simple rule: our financial advisors must devote 100% of their time either talking to clients or preparing to talk to their clients. Everything else is delegated to support staff.
- Adding people
- The next generation of CFP's. They're well grounded in basic financial planning knowledge, but need to learn how to build a plan and work with clients.
- Don't let a client think they've been "demoted," because they no longer speak directly with you but with a new associate, for example. Assure your clients that you are still the one behind the scenes, that you are still looking out for them.
- Internship program
- Chapter 6: Schmooze or Lose
- You have to show your clients that they are important
- CRM. Keep track of all client contacts. Plan regular visits. Keep track of HOW people want to be contacted.
- Reach out with a blog
- Schedule time with wealthy clients monthly.
- Email newsletters can help you stay connected.
- High net worth clients are busy and expect a lot of personal attention.
- Chapter 7: Doing Well By Doing Good
- Volunteerism can really buff your image, but it has to be honest.
- You've got to perform well for your clients if you're handling their investments.
- Many professional organizations have formal assistance for financial planners to give back.
- Page 175 has a good sample conversation about how to introduce a new planner to a client without making them feel like they're being handed off to a 2nd tier person.
- "I will be the one working with you primarily, but xxx will be working with you as well."
- Chapter 8: The University of Life
- www.lifttheburden.com is an excellent source for a RIA.
- Read a lot to stay up with market trends.
- Chapter 9: Building an Empire and Selling It
- David Grau, president of Business Transitions, with runs FP Transitions, a Website--indeed a system--for buying and selling FP practices. No planner should try to sell a practice without having a look at the FP Transitions site and considering them as a broker for the transaction.
- Advisors are already up to 2x recurring revenue for their practice.
- "You are buying future income streams, with relatively low overhead."
- The assumption is that the seller with deliver those clients with no additional costs for doing this.
- Includes a non-compete from the seller.
- Appendix
Part of the Rich Dad, Poor Dad series of books by Robert Kiyosaki
Summary
I thought this was one of the best books in the RDPD series. It was written after the 2000 stock market crash, so it has a very sarcastic "I told you so" sort of feel. Kiyosaki tries to debunk the concept of "diversifying and investing for the long term." He says the "fast money" moves money around while the slow money loses.
The book attempts to answer the question, "How should I invest $10,000?" by asking several stereotypical people (i.e. the salesperson, etc.). For example, the salesperson says, "Trust me. Invest for the long-term." This sets up the person to spend absolutely no time learning about investing. The answer to this is to take matters into your own hands and to become an educated investor. If you aren't willing to take that step, then put down the book and let somebody else handle your money. But don't later ask, "Who took my money?"
Intro
Right off the bat, he highlights the difference between real estate & stock market investing. The big difference being leverage & insurance. It's the first chart, that inspired Dr. Reinholtz to go out and buy a condo instead of investing in the stock market. In real estate, you make money using a small portion of your money and a bunch of other people's money (OPM). In this case, the banks. In addition, the income is passive and can be sheltered through 1031 exchanges to defer the capital gains tax.
Capital Gains vs. Cash Flow
The message of the book is to invest for cash flow, because capital gains will also follow. His order of priorities is:
- Cash flow.
- Leverage
- Tax advantages
- Capital gains
Even though Kiwosaki has these priorities, he often contradicts himself. For example, he would say that real estate is good even if you just break even, because the tax advantages and capital gains will make up the difference. Nevertheless, I think these priorities are interesting. Personally, I'm made several investments where tax advantages were first priority. Why? Because keeping money is always easier than making new money.
Also, by putting leverage 2nd, you would really want to learn options, because that is the only way to really leverage & insure stocks. Not totally true, you can always get 50% leverage by buying on margin. You can also get cash flow by investing in high dividend stocks.
Ask a businessman. Businesses are taxed differently than ordinary income. You can really make some huge money here.
Ask a Journalist. In this chapter, Kiwosaki suggests that you ask any potential financial advisor, "Do you earn most of your money as a financial advisor or as an investor?" If it's not as an investor, than forget them. He says don't trust journalists because they write for advertisers. He says you be able to discern between fact, opinion and principle. The only good thing some publications provide is an insight into business trends. For that, he recommends reading Fortune Small Business.
Ask a gambler. In this chapter, Kiyosaki introduces the 20-10-5 cycle and how it affects the investment game. Simply put, this theory states that the stock market is in favor for 20 years. When the 20 years are over, the market crashes and for the next 10 years, commodities such as oil, gold, silver, real estate, gas, soybeans, pork, rise in value. The 5 of the 20-10-5 clcle means that every 5 years some tragedy happens, such as the 1987 stock market crash or the 9/11 massacre.
If this 20-10-5 cycle holds true, than 1980-2000 were the 20 year cycle for stocks. In years 2001-2010, commodities will be in favor. Clearly, oil has been on a tear. So has gold.
Kiyosaki also recommends that an investor considers control and how it differs among different types of asset classes:
Owning your own business
You are in control
Owning real estate
You are in control
401(k)'s
Who is in control?
Mutual funds
Who is in control
Equities (stocks)
Who is in control?
Ask Newton. In this chapter, Kiyosaki says that trends, not diversification are the keys to making money. He lists demographics, debt, interest rates,
Ask Father Time. In the year 2016, the first baby boomer turns seventy and a half and that is the approximate time the house of cards will come tumbling down, leading to the biggest stock market crash in the history of the world. Harry Dent predicts the same thing will happen, but says it will happen in 2010. I think Kiyosaki's is more accurate.
The Power of Power Investing. Kiyosaki says its more powerful to invest in 3 asset classes: business, real estate, and paper assets. He also gets into the "accelerators" of each asset class.
How to find great investments.
- The best time to buy is when the market is down.
- California, already very crowded, is expected to have a population increase of 18 percent over the next two decades.
- In the 20-10-5 cycle, the next disaster should hit around 2006.
- "This 20-10-5 cycle lets me know that stocks will probably be coming back in favor around 2008 and I will remind myself to consider selling my gold shares at about that time."
- "I will continue to invest in real estate. Real estate property values only go up if there are people who want to rent them."
How to be a great investor.
- Earn/create. You want passive income, not earned income.
- Manage. Control the asset. Use it to your advantage.
- Leverage. Use OPM.
- Protect. Insure it. Hedge it.
- Exit. Try not to trigger a taxable event. Example: Using a 1031 exchange rather than selling it.
Conclusion: Winner or Loser?
Interesting that Kiyosaki uses a half-time grid:
Qtr 1: 25-35
Qtr 2: 35-45
Half-time
Qtr 3: 45-55
Qtr 4: 55-65
When do you win (i.e. get out of the rat race)?
"The best part of playing the game of money, regardless of whether I was winning or losing, is that I got better at the game."
How to Retire Early and Live Well, by Gillette Edmunds, 1999
Summary
This book makes the case for having a diversified portfolio of 3-to-5 non-correlated asset classes. The asset classes are NOT just stocks & bonds as so many "diversified" portfolios suggest.
Can You Retire Today?
This chapter provides formulas for figuring out if you can retire. It provides insights into tax savings that you derive when you are living completely from your investment income. For example, investment income has NO employment taxes. NOTE: As I have found out, you can virtually eliminate taxes, which is like giving yourself a 40-50% raise. It also makes the point of telling the readers that withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts are taxed at ordinary tax rates, not capital gains rates. The author has NO tax-deferred accounts in his portfolio.
If you Retire Today, Beware!
When living off of investments, it is not helpful to spend all of your time worrying about market crashes and ending up on the street. If you do, you will not be effective in picking out the right real estate or foreign stock fund. Your results will suffer. Good investment results are much more important, however, than reducing your spending to zero. You should easily expect to get 8% from your investments if you work at it. You must do well on your investments if you are to live well in retirement.
Determining Your Retirement Portfolio
The author recommends diversifying into 3-to-5 non-correlated asset classes. He lists the asset classes below:
ASSET CLASS
EXPECTED LIFETIME RETURN
- Emerging market stocks 14%
-
US small-company stocks 12%
- US large-company stocks 10%
- Foreign-company stocks 10%
- US real estate 10%
- US oil & gas 8%
- Corporate bonds 7%
- Foreign bonds 7%
- Treasury bonds 6%
- Municipal bonds 5%
- Money markets and CD's 4%
- Treasury bills 3%
- Gold 3%
Not all of above are non-correlated. Also, there are many vehicles for investing in the above classes. For example, real estate can be invested directly in homes or commercial property, publicly-traded REITs, limited partnership tenants-in-common, etc. REITs follow the stock market, whereas private held real estate does not. For example, CA real-estate did very well during the stock market downturn of 2000-2002. The investment vehicle within an asset class depends on how much time you want to spend on that investment. The more time you spend, the more direct your investment. For example, I'm a direct investor in oil & gas, whereas I am a tenant-in-common for real estate. I also buy stocks, as opposed to index funds or a venture-capital investment in a private company.
NOTE: My current portfolio is 75% weighted in oil & gas. Obviously, that is a big risk. I have very little in the stock market and real estate. The bottom line is that you should only have a maximum of 1/3 of your portfolio in any one investment class.
You'll never make a target goal of 8-10% by putting everything in treasury bills or money-market accounts. You would have to have a LOT of assets and really low expenses to pull off that strategy. The prudent thing is to live off your investments in the same proportion that you invest in them.
Foreign Stocks & Emerging Markets
The author recommends heavily getting into foreign markets. He says the value of the dollar will continue to fall because other countries are catching up to our economic conditions. "Emerging market currencies have a long way to go, as do their economies. But someday, Mexico will have an economy as strong as ours and the peso will move up against the dollar as a result." Non-US stocks are excellent investments for retired investors because they can have up years when all your other asset classes have down years. Gillette recommends buying international index funds after 2005. I looked up several that exclude Japan and put them in my action item list.
ACTION ITEMS AS A RESULT OF THIS BOOK
- Calculate my current asset allocation. Done. Turns out I'm 75% allocated in oil & gas. At most, I should be 33% in this asset class. I won't be making any additional oil & gas investments. Instead, I will take any oil & gas distributions and investing them in other asset classes.
- Your home equity is NOT an asset class. Don't include it in your portfolio. The author also recommend paying off your mortgage if you are living completely off of your assets. This helps eliminate the worry of a sudden market downturn.
- Foreign indexes like EEM, might be a good way to get exposure to foreign markets. Ex-Japan is the way to go. You can get country specific with ETFs if you want.
By Harry S. Dent, Copyright 2004
Thesis: Demographics as a new science is the greatest breakthrough we have seen in economics. Our economy is far more predictable than we have been led to believe by economists.
We are at a very auspicious and potentially ominous time in human history now that birth and demographic trends are slowing for the first time in modern history.
The next great bubble will likely accelerate between 2005 and 2009 and complete the financing of the Internet, wireless, and broadband infrastructures to create the first affluent/millionaire economy in history into the middle of this century. We are projecting that investors who have the conviction to buy on pullbacks in mid-to-late 2004 are going to see higher average annual compound returns than they would have seen in the last great bull wave from late 1990 into early 2000.
- It would pay over time to be out of the markets from August 2004 through October in 2007.
- By late 2004, we think the markets are likely to start accelerating again with more leadership from technology stocks. However, the economy is not likely to show strong growth again until mid-2005 on.
- A very strong tech-led rally from late 2006 into late 2009 that could extend into early to mid-2010.
- We can expect the first sharp decline in the stock market to begin, especially between April and September 2010.
- Most real estate markets are likely to take their first major decline since the Great Depression from around 2011 into 2014, when the baby boomers have completed their spending cycle and are starting to downsize their housing.
- The first insight from demographic demand trends is that house prices will grow more slowly over the rest of this decade and may even decline modestly, especially between 2004 and 2005. The best of the growth in housing is clearly behind us. There will be a modest uptick in pricing in late 2005 to 2006 because of trade-ups. Most of the gains will be in vacation/resort housing.
- We have NOT been forecasting a deep crash, but merely a slowing and modest declines, with stronger declines in upscale markets and most overvalued areas.
- The best time to buy a vacation home would either be now or during any minor weakness in 2005, well ahead of the peak of the boom.
- The luxury-home markets could see another mini-bubble into 2010, and these homes should be sold between 2009 and 2010 and they will fare worst in the great downturn.
Andrew-It could be best to have your son enter a business and make inroads as he takes some college courses at night. He could grow in that business and become a more valued employee into 2009 or 2010. Then when the economy starts to turn down and layoffs are likely, he might be able to go back to college full-time and focus on the areas of education that he has found to be most critical to his advancement in the company, after having some real experience of his strengths and weaknesses and the areas he is most interested in. The best time to enter college would be the fall of 2009 and even better into 2012. The best time to launch a new business will be during the downturn.
Life Planning
- Start your own non-profit or private foundation.
- People outside the US do not understand why we are so prosperous and they are not. It just doesn't make sense to them. That's why there is a holy war against American capitalism.
- We should see near-zero inflation rates and even slight levels of deflation between 2005 and early 2006.
- We are strongly recommending that investors concentrate and diversify among large-cap growth sectors, such as technology, financial services, biotech, health care, and Asia ex-Japan, from late 2002 into late 2009 or early 2010.
Millionaire Economy
- We think there are likely there are likely to be closer to 15 million millionaire households by 2010, or nearly 15% of the households in this country. This is clearly becoming the new definition of the affluent class: a million-dollar net worth and $100,000-plus incomes.
- The number of $5-millionaires will be more like 1.5 to 2 million by 2010. These are more like the profiles of the Millionaire Next Door. These increasingly affluent households will dominate most of the growth in business over the coming decade and set the trends for many decades to come.
- Professional/knowledge-based jobs as well as entrepreneurial innovation and ownership will continue to accelerate versus factory and clerical jobs.
- Hence, a more powerful trend for creating wealth has been the dramatic increase in households that are investing in stocks.
- Over the coming decades about 70% of us will be self-employed (pg. 257). The second slogan for the new economy would be: Everyone a business owner--or a business within their company with profit-sharing.
- It is important for businesses and investors to target this rising affluent class in this "Roaring 2000's" decade. New rising affluent class of baby boomers.
- More work from home, more flexibility, more business ownership,
- revitalized non-profit sector fueled by the baby-boom philanthropy wave.
- Self-esteem and self-actualization are the human trends driving the new economy and the present corporate model is not designed to serve these needs of the increasingly affluent consumers and knowledge-based workers.
After 2009-2020 the investment and business opportunities will shift to China, Southeast Asia, and India.
Rich Dad Poor Dad's Guide to Investing
By Robert Kiyosaki
The book introduces the concept of an Accredited Investor. Someone who makes:
- $200,000 or more in income as an individual or
- $300,000 or more in income as a couple or
- Or has $1 million or more in net worth
The subtitle of the book is "What the rich invest in that the poor and the middle class do not!" This subtitle is very accurate. Most people have no clue of what an accredited investor is and therefore, have never been offered the opportunity to invest in an accredited investment opportunity. Unfortunately, for them, accredited investments are the best investments available.
Most people think that a diversified portfolio is a mixture of stocks & bonds. Lately, that may include real estate investments through REIT's. In reality, there are a lot of investment opportunities outside the public markets. In fact, RDPD concludes that most rich people have the majority (over 80%) of their investments outside the stock market. What do they know that most people do not. Why do almost all investment magazines and papers focus exclusively on the stock market? That question is a key element of the book.
Investment knowledge minimizes risk. Most people spend 5 minutes a year on their investments. They are hoping their 401k's will let them retire in relative financial security, yet they have no idea what they're doing. They've been fed the line, "Buy and hold. Stocks go up an average of 10% per year." So, they expect to increase their retirement accounts by 10% a year. Until they realize that 2000-2002, it actually decreased by 30-50%. Ouch.
"A true investor does not become attached to the vehicles or the procedures. A true investor has a plan and has multiple options as to investment vehicles and procedures."
"Most people do not go beyond the secure and comfortable because they are not willing to invest the time."
- Kiyosaki is a big believer in real estate investing. Although, in "Who Took My Money," he balances this out with other types of investing.
- Kiyosaki says everyone should learn how to read a financial statement. It should become second nature.
The Oil Factor,
by Stephen Leeb (2004)
The thesis of this book is that oil is the single biggest factor in determining the strength of the stock market. His theory is that we have reached the peak of production of oil and that rising demand from China, India with declining supplies, no amount of conservation or additional drilling will change that fact. By 2010, the price of oil will hit $100 per barrel and will usher in a period of inflation. "This could means gas prices at the pump approaching $10 a gallon." Leeb recommends a portfolio of energy, real estate and precious metals to hedge against inflation.
Leeb also advocates the oil factor in determining whether the market will be in a raging bull, raging bear or sideways market. If oil has risen 80% or more in one year, then we're heading for raging bear--get into cash fast. If oil has risen 20% or less, then we're heading for a raging bull--buy up inflationary plays like energy stocks, real estate, gold and defense (recommendations in book). If we're between 20-80% we'll have a slightly bullish, but generally sideways market--hold investment.
Leeb believes that the U.S. government and consumers will not do any serious conservation or development of alternative energy sources until we hit $100 per barrel oil ($10 gallon of gas). Leeb advocates wind energy as the best alternative renewable source of energy.
"The evidence is overwhelming that no investor should buy stocks without first looking at the recent direction of oil." So, Leeb recommends looking at the month-end oil prices at www.tax.state.ak.us. Once there, click on "Oil Prices" then he easiest option is to follow is to click on the West Texas Intermediate under monthly oil prices. If oil prices are up 80% from last year, then sell stocks in oil-slanted portfolio, if they are only up 20%, then buy stocks in his oil-emphasis portfolio, if they are in between, then hold. NOTE (3/24/05), from Jan04 to Jan05 they are up 35%. This uptrend will be interrupted from time to time by periods of slowing economic growth, but it won't change the trend.
PERSONAL NOTE: From an personal investment point of view, my oil & natural gas investments should be in awesome shape if we hit $100 per barrel. Leeb believes natural gas will rise right alongside oil, because they both are primary sources of generating electricity and are depleting resources. Leeb asserts that real demand for natural gas will rise at 3% per year or 30% over the next 10 years. CHANGEWAVE seems to agree with Leeb and is recommending 80% of the their portfolio be in energy stocks.
"The bottom line: oil & natural gas stocks should be a core holding in every investor's portfolio," says Leeb.
Leeb asserts that high oil prices and negative real interest rates (the nominal rate - inflation rate), will cause an inflationary scenario and therefore, real estate, precious metals, energy and defense will do well. Leeb advocates that real interest rates will remain negative for some time because the government cannot risk a serious drop in real estate prices since that will piss off voters. In the 70's, for example, we allowed interest rates to climb toward 20%, which deflated inflation in a hurry and depressed home prices as well. Imagine if interest rates went to 10% tomorrow, we would be facing a massive amount of foreclosures and the price of real estate would plummet. Leeb states that US homeowners are leveraged 70% of their home values vs. 26% back in the 80's. Obviously, that means a LOT of 2nd mortgages and interest-only loans. So, Greenspan will have to allow inflation to get out of control. NOTE: I've noticed that the CPI numbers are always given WITHOUT energy prices in affect. Therefore, we're being conditioned to look at inflation rates minus energy prices, thus the Fed can continue to keep on slow, steady path of raising rates without killing home prices.
Leeb believes that oil/gas alternatives are needed, but that we won't take them seriously until $100/barrell. Leeb is a big advocate of wind energy. He also believes that Hybrid's will really take off, which is why he recommends Toyota as a alternative energy stock pick.
I've taken a look at Leeb's stock picks. If you would have bought his portfolio when the book came out in early 2004, you would have been smiling big time. Not sure if this is the right time to jump into some of these since they've had such a run up. Again, the price of oil is the factor to watch for his picks. "Our favorite energy fund is Vanguard Energy Fund, a relatively safe and value-oriented pure play in the energy arena," says Leeb. (NOTE: VGENX 1-year performance is 37%).
SECTORS: Energy, Gold, Real Estate, Alternative Energy, Defense
NOTE: Oil Prices haven't had a 80% single-year rise, however, there have been buy signals when it's only gone up 20%. Mostly, it's been a hold market for his suggestions.
